The boyfriend jean: Fashion and celebrity spotters can probably easily point out by now who is responsible for this fit’s resurgence: Katie Holmes. And she had actually borrowed her pair from husband Tom Cruise, designers have since made enough pairs for women so that sharing is no longer necessary. The modern twists are its narrowly rolled-up cuffs.

The skinny jean: A pair of these in a dark wash and little embellishments will always be considered chic, though this season’s pair is quite the opposite. Most are cropped directly to the ankle to show off sandals. Some come with ankle zippers, perhaps for easier removal during the hot months. And some more can be found in a solid, bold hue – try purple, yellow, or red, if not an acid wash.

The wide-leg jean: While more easily associated with casual looks, this season’s pairs take a sophisticated turn reminiscent of old Hollywood stars: the high waist. Designers have made them available in a variety of washes, but make sure that they otherwise remain simple. The fit alone should create enough visual interest for any outfit.

What denim trends have you been noticing lately?

They are what the industry is calling small indulgences, or even little luxuries that consumers are also refusing to give up. They offer high quality without a heavy price, while also a small dose of relief for today’s more stressed-out consumer.

Chocolate

Premium chocolate manufacturer Ghirardelli actually expects 2009 sales to exceed that of 2009, as reported by USA Today. Meanwhile, Cadbury and Nestle saw revenue increase by 7 percent or higher last month.

“Chocolate does fine in a recession, even a premium brand like ourselves,” said Fabrizio Parini, senior vice president of marketing. “Maybe our bar is double of what someone else’s is, but we’re still talking about $4 vs. $2.”

Cosmetics

As a whole, cosmetics sales have wavered less than other product categories because of a comparatively lower price and still high frequency of usage.

In an international survey reported by Skin Inc. magazine, 41 percent of respondents said they have been spending the same amount on cosmetics as they did before economists declared a recession.

And while drugstores brands are cheaper, few cosmetics consumers are giving up their department store favorites. The personalized service is an added bonus.

Fashion Accessories

For now cautious – but still fashion-conscious – customers, accessories can easily bring any outfit up to date for a smaller price. After all, while J. Crew prices a cashmere crewneck sweater as high as $145, its cashmere scarf costs $98.

As a result, demand from both retailers and consumers is still higher than expected. Last month, Hot Topic reported that accessory purchases same-store sales increase of 10.8 percent, according to the Salt Lake Tribune.

Readers, what high-quality items would you never give up, even as you cut back buying everything else?

Continuing on with the Top 10 Trends in Small Business, 2009. Now for the Top 5:

5. Web 2.0 tips: Web 2.0 has reached the Tipping Point. Web 2.0 is shorthand for this era of interactive Internet where content is often participant created. YouTube is the most obvious example – the audience creates the Internet experience. Flickr, Slideshare, and even the comments section on USATODAY.com articles do much the same thing.

More significantly, this interactivity has spread to mobile computing, and this presents increased opportunity for small business. Notebooks, smart phones, BlackBerrys, GPS devises, netbooks (small notebooks for mobile Internet), etc. enable you to reach customers as never before. Experts say that the biggest opportunities lie with restaurants, financial and news services, and retail.

Taking advantage: Create a viral video. Create a web app, or a mobile web app. Solve a problem.

4. Shoestring marketing makes a comeback: In this time of tight budgets, where both entrepreneurs and their customers are increasingly reluctant to part with a penny, it is actually more important than ever that the small businessperson step up their marketing. As Richard Branson advises, recessions are time to expand, not contract.

Most entrepreneurs instinctively know this and that is why the trend now is towards increased marketing that costs little but delivers big, such as:

• Online video: Tapping into trend # 5, online video is a way to better interact and connect with your customers. Teach them something new about you or your products.
• Blogs: Anecdotal evidence: At a conference I attended earlier this year, fully half of the small businesses surveyed said they are increasing their blogging and as such are successfully using blogs to grow their business. Blogs make you more accessible. Blogs increase your SEO. Blogs can build your business. Even if you only get, say, 50 people consistently reading your blog, that’s 50 more potential customers than before.
• Old school: Coupons, word of mouth, direct mail, customer service.

Taking advantage: Get crackin’, amigo!

3. Social networking works. Last year’s No. 1 entry on this list comes in this year at No. 3, but not for lack of effort. Maybe it is just me, but doesn’t it seem like people have just become obsessed with Facebook? And it is not just Facebook. It’s Twitter, and LinkedIn, and MySpace, and Digg, StumbleUpon, Del.icio.us, Technocrati, and something like, oh, a zillion more.

Taking advantage: Join some of these sites, or, if you are already on a few, put some time and effort into them. It does pay off. Just last week a friend of mine was looking to do a deal with a major U.S. newspaper. Two people away via LinkedIn and he met the exact person who helped him put a deal together in a week.

2. Innovation rears its head: It is historically true that business innovation expands as the economy contracts. There are many reasons for this. Necessity being the mother of invention is the main one; that is, with fewer customers and a need to keep the business alive, hearty entrepreneurs often get creative as a way to lure people in.

The Xerox machine was first conceived of, and then worked on, during the Great Depression. Ditto Tupperware.

This will be even truer in 2009, for a variety of reasons: The need and push for clean energy, a massive government spending program at home and abroad, technology moving at the speed of light, scared customers, and an era of new visions and possibilities, to name a few.

Taking advantage: Try doing something new. Labor can be cheap right now, and so too can be materials.

And the No. 1 trend for 2009 is, not surprisingly,

1. Economic tumult: Says Business Week, “Expect more budget cuts, layoffs, shutdowns, bankruptcies, and mergers.” Says the National Federation of Independent Business: “Small business owners broadly and sharply [will] feel the impact of the recession. The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism . . . was the fourth lowest reading in the 35-year history of the survey.”

Says Strauss: At least for the first half of the year, companies will be downsizing, tightening budgets even more, and looking to do more with less. That trend will trump all others.

The good news is that we have probably seen the worst of things and as the year progresses, money and ideas will begin to flow again. Deals may even get made!

Can you take advantage of this moment? Of course, any good entrepreneur would. Give people what they want, namely, the chance to save some money, and the ability to still move forward.

Do that, and the trend winds will be at your back. Here is to a healthy, prosperous 2009.

Today’s Tip: For more info on how these trends may affect your business, check out these two resources:

• The Business Trends Blog is a great resource of the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council. It is easy to read, full of great information, and on the money.
• The second edition of my best-selling book The Small Business Bible has an entirely new section on trends in the 21^st Century, covering things like the new consumer, e-marketing made e-asy, mobility, succeeding in a flat world, and much more.

What a difference a year makes!

A year ago, my annual “Top 10 Trends in Small Business” was full of ideas spawned by big changes in technology and the Internet, with things like smart phones and SEO dominating the list.

This year?

While the Web and technology certainly make an appearance, it will be no surprise that many of the dominant trends right now relate to the economy.

And, while I will note again that this is not a prediction column, I should report that my #4 trend last year was eerily prophetic: “2008 looks to be a year dominated by the ripple effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis: A sluggish economy and probably a recession. For the small business, the effects are substantial . . .  the overall belt-tightening means doing business all around will be more of a challenge.”

This year, the economic prognostications are even worse, and small business trends generally reflect that. That said, it’s most certainly not all bad news. There is a lot of good going on out there, and plenty of opportunity for those who seek it.

Top 10 Small Business Trends, 2009

10. Money doesn’t grow on sprees: In this era of belt-tightening, reduced budgets, unemployment, and fear, it is easy to see why one of the most obvious trends out there affecting small business is the desire of consumers and customers to save a buck, spend less, and get a bargain.

Even high-end brands are feeling the effect of this trend; the lavish Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas for instance, a resort that usually commands at least $300 a night, has lately been offering rooms for about half that amount.

Taking advantage: If people are looking for a bargain, give them one. Discount poplar products. Bundle services for less. Negotiate.

9. The O-conomy: The election of Barack Obama signifies many things, but for our purposes here, a main one is that government spending and budgets will be headed in a new direction, and it would behoove the smart entrepreneur to get ready to take advantage of these new priorities.

The stimulus package that Congress will pass in early ‘09 will budget plenty of money for all sorts of infrastructure projects – everything from the traditional – roads and bridges – to the new – green businesses and high tech.

Taking advantage: Google ‘bidding on government contracts’ and learn how.

Government largesse – it’s not just for Halliburton anymore.

8. Green goes mainstream: Last year, coming in at #3, was “Green is the new black” – being green was trendy. In 2009, it is expected. Yes, people are looking for a bargain, but an increasing number also want their product and service providers to be environmentally conscious. And green consumers in particular will almost always be willing to pay a premium for organic, sustainable, green products.

Taking advantage: At a minimum, make sure your website indicates your green commitment.

7. The solo-preneur takes flight: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in November, 2008 “employers took 2,328 mass layoff actions involving a total of 224,079 workers.” In addition, “the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent. Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.”

And the unemployment rate is only going to climb higher, and higher.

According to Thomas Frey, the Senior Futurist at the DaVinci Institute, “As a general rule, 7 percent of the recently jobless will attempt to start their own businesses.” Frey says that “the most popular form of startup will the Empire of One, one-person businesses . . . .”

Taking advantage: “Look for rapid growth of support structures, management systems, and outsourcing options.”

6.  Opportunity abounds! As Warren Buffet says, “You should get greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” Many things are on sale right now, especially stocks and real estate.

Taking advantage: If you buy at these historically low prices today, it is doubtful that you will regret it tomorrow.

Tomorrow: The Top 5.

Using statistical information, recent surveys and targeted polling as resources, Halloween-News.com predicts the following Halloween trends for 2008:

Adult Costumes

This years movie to watch for will include Batman: the Dark Night, Indiana Jones and The Terminator. Jack and Sally from Nightmare Before Christmas are always present. You’ll still see a surge of pirate costumes since Capt. Jack Sparrow is still popular. Couples costumes will be big again this year, take a look at some of them at http://www.adulthalloweencostumes.com . The usual horror film bad guys such as the new Michael Meyers costume and mask, Jason from the Friday the 13th series and Freddy from Nightmare on Elm Street are all still popular. Classic movie villains such as Dracula, the Wolfman and the Mummy are always good choices. There is a strong resurgence towards the traditional, macabre, dark and sexy. Theater quality Vampire and Witch costumes, particularly sexy ones will be to die for this year. Elvira style costumes will also be in great demand. Gothic, ghostly apparitions as couples costumes will also make an appearance.

Decorating

People are decorating for Halloween like never before! The focus is on realism for adult parties, dark and spooky with lots of realism. With the availability of low cost consumer-based fog machines, more will be sold this Halloween due to the three day week-end with Halloween falling on a Friday this year. You’ll also see more elaborate yard haunts pop-up on this special night, complete with graveyards, skeletons, ghosts and special effects.

Halloween Parties

Halloween falls on a Friday this year and that means a week-end of partying! That gives us an extended two days to celebrate and throw week-end parties, also allowing for longer times running haunted houses and Halloween charity parties. Whether its a Pack of Pirates, Den of Vampires, Zombies, or Ghostly Apparitions, theme based parties are definitely in! And those that hold these parties will pull-out all the stops when it comes to decorating and the libation.

Grab your coconut bras and grass skirts and jump on the organic textiles bandwagon! More and more retailers are beginning to cater to green fashion and it would appear that it’s more than just a fad.

The reason for this? One day not long ago some forward thinking entrepreneurs realized that people will spend bucket loads of money on fashion…so why wouldn’t people do the same for organic clothing as well? They looked around and said to themselves "the only organic clothes available look like burlap sacks!" "Ces’t tres horrible! " they gasped in unison, aghast at the utter disaster of the whole situation. And thus the organic fashion revolution began. (and this obviously happened in France because that’s where the best revolutions take place…at least in fashion, right? and I think Al Gore was there too…)

**note the above story is purely hypothetical in nature and should be regarded as mere imagination on my part as to how this whole thing began…but however it happened, it’s here.

Now companies such as Linda Loudermilk and Figleaves.com are selling$230 bamboo jeans and100% organic cotton undies for $28. While the prices may seem steep there appears to be a market for these items…and it’s growing.

So if you are a would-be entrepreneur looking for an idea, use this as a starting place. The market has scarcely been tapped and if you play your cards right you might just get in on the ground level of a phenomenal retail trend. Plus, with more and more people becoming interested in this niche, someone’s bound to come up with a new way to manufacture these goods for the masses…will it be you?

The key to effective buying is knowing and understanding your store’s industry and its target market. Staying on top of industry trends and the newest products requires time and effort but, as a bonus, it can be fun too!

How to spot new products early

Years ago, before the age of the internet, retailers had a heck of a time finding the latest and greatest products, and relied heavily on distributors and manufacturer’s reps to do the product sourcing for them. Luckily, today things are different. With the internet, you can find everything you need to keep your store stocked with the newest and most innovative items industry manufacturers have to offer.

Industry blogs – One of the best ways to find new products is by checking blog postings related to your industry. Popular bloggers constantly get new product submissions and then sift through them to highlight the ones they think are the most unique. If your product selection tends to be broad like “gadgets”, you will find that there are a ton of popular blogs in this category and the bloggers love to be the first to find new products – making your work even easier. Once you have found several blogs that you like, subscribe to them and make it a daily or weekly habit to skim through the postings – this will be easy as most bloggers usually add a picture of any new product they’re writing about.

Trade shows – Perusing the isles of an industry trade show gives you the opportunity sift through thousands of products in just one or two days. Many smaller manufacturers have booths at trade shows, giving you the chance to carry some unique and hard-to-find merchandise. Finding trade shows to attend is easy; there are plenty of websites, like BizTradeShows.com that let you search trade shows by both industry and location. You’ll be surprised how many trade shows are going on within your industry!

Online searches – Of course, one of the easiest ways to find new products is by searching on Google, Yahoo! or MSN. Take a few minutes to brainstorm a list of possible product searches, like “newest dog toys”, “hottest remote control cars”, etc. and then begin your search. This method often takes a while, as you will be sifting through other retailer sites, press releases, etc. Be sure to keep in mind that a product you see may be new to you but might be years old and at the end of its product life cycle.

Trade websites and publications – Many manufacturers tend to advertise on websites and in publications within their industry. Do some searches for “your industry” and “trade industry” or “your industry” and “trade publications”. Then, take a look at the classifieds and new product listings and take note of any new and interesting products.

Once you get on a regular product sourcing cycle, you’ll find that finding new products gets much easier. You’ll know what types of search terms work, what blogs seem dedicated to introducing new products and what trade magazines are rich with new product advertisements.

There’s a tradition in my family that for any occasion that warrants a card, especially birthdays, the meaner the card is the better. We often try to out do the other contenders and the result is often big laughs. The more insulting the card, the more you’re loved–we have an understanding.

We’re not the only people who share this fun, albeit unusual, tradition and with Valentine’s Day upon us, it appears that businesses are beginning to cash in on this quirky trend. For example, American Greetings Corp. has an entire category of "Anti-Valentine’s Day" cards.

And they’re not the only ones capitalizing on the anti-Valentine’s Day theme. Other businesses are coming up with unique ways to promote their businesses such as a bowling alley in Cleveland hosting a "Love…Spare Me!" event and clothing and merchandise stores selling t-shirts and stickers promoting "single awareness."

So the next time a popular holiday rolls around, try a variation on the theme…you might even start a new trend!

Growing at a rate of about 10% per year over the past quarter-century, with a population well over 1 billion and about 20% of the world’s population, China’s capitalist revoltion touches everything:

* High gas prices negatively affecting your business? Blame China. The country’s thirst for oil to fuel its economic expansion means that you should never expect to see gas below $3 a gallon again, ever.
* Worried about global warming? China is no small reason. "China’s pollution problem, like the speed and scale of its rise as an economic power, has shattered all precedents." (NY Times, August 25, 2007.)
* Concerned that your best customers may outsource what you do for them to a cheaper source? Bingo, China. According to the Asia Times last year, "After becoming the world’s workshop for mostly labor-intensive products, China has unveiled a plan to… [challenge india and] create 1,000 large-scale international service-outsourcing enterprises."

Not just governments, the China Factor is something we all we have to learn to deal with.

No. 4: It’s the economy, stupid, part deux: 2008 looks to be a year dominated by the ripple effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis: A sluggish economy and probably a recession. For the small business, the effects are substantial:

* Falling housing prices, rising interest rates, and increased mortgage defaults means that it will be significantly more difficult for small businesses to tap home equity to fuel startups, growth, or bailouts.
* This credit squeeze also means that getting a regular business loan will be tougher.
* And the overall belt-tightening means that business all around will be more of a challenge.

The good news is that because this is an election year, we just may see Washington try to prop up the economy and lessen the effects of the forces above.

No. 3: Green is the new black: Whether it was Al Gore winning an Oscar and the Nobel Peace Prize or the melting of the polar ice caps, there is no doubt that climate change is a trend not to be ignored. That it holds opportunities for small business is not incidental either.

According to Time Magazine, "Green investment by American venture-capital firms reached $2.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2007, the highest level ever recorded and nearly 50% more than the total for the whole of 2006."

As such, whether you are looking for a hot sector for a new startup, want to do right by the planet, or just want to make employees and customers happy, going is smart business.

No. 2: Working smarter, not harder: Coming in at No. 2 on this list again this year is the changing way in which we work. Increased computer mobility equals increased business mobility.

This also means that there are many new ways to work that are far more viable today than even a few years ago: Flex-time, job-sharing, outsourcing, working from home, working on the road, virtual offices, virtual companies – the options seem to grow with every innovation. IBM now has 73,000 employees in India – up 40% from last year.

In his interesting book, The 4 Hour Work Week, entrepreneur and author Timothy Ferris takes this phenomenon to a whole new level, outsourcing much of his mundane tasks to virtual assistants.

And the No. 1 small business trend for 2008 is …

Networking 2.0: Networking used to be that thing you had to do: Trudging off to the local business mixer in order to exchange business cards and boring chit-chat with people you didn’t know but hoped needed your services anyway.

Welcome to the new world.

Networking 2.0 is altogether, 180 degrees, 100% different. Networking in this new wired world means locating compadres online via a vast network of shared colleagues using sites like LinkedIn, or getting the word out using Facebook, MySpace, or YouTube. Networking today means harnessing the power of the Net to expand your profile e-xponentially.

And that’s this year’s list. Like it? Disagree? Whatever the case, shoot me an email at sstrauss@MrAllBiz.com .

When common products proliferate and saturate the market (think tea, coffee and even diamonds) it’s time to come with something new that will make your product stand out again. The answer is premiumization, making the product even more exclusive and desirable. In the case of water, there’s not a lot you can do that hasn’t already been done – from flavorings to rethinking the container, but you can make it posh. Very posh.

That’s what premiumization is all about. The premium version makes your product (or more usually the container) a premium exclusive product. Take Bling H20 – it’s water, yes, but it is also water available in premium bottles studded with Swarovski crystals. It’s a fashion accessory that the beautiful people with more money than cell phones will not pass up.

Water is one of the main products to be premiumized in 2008. Exclusive designer bottles and packaging will be pumped out at a price that will make some of us wonder if the water was gathered by Vestal Virgins in pristine rainforests.

Oh – is that what you really want? Well, we make no promises about the Vestal Virgins, but you will be able to buy water that has never touched the ground in 2008. That’s right, Tasmanian Rain, a new product from down under, is claimed to be collected as it falls. If it’s virgin water you want, trust the Australians to catch it for you.

Premiumization isn’t new, but it is becoming the biggest new thing. Chocolate, coffee and tea have all been premiumized in to fashionable boutique products – think hand made chocolates, flavored teas and coffee and "art house" branding.

You can premiumize anything, goes the new business wisdom – even toilet paper. How? Make it a designer product, move on from the plain white and pastel pretties that most bathrooms display. Toilet paper can be any color at all, from anywhere on the spectrum. If you have shelled out for an exclusive apartment with an even more exclusive bathroom, you will want toilet paper that matches the ambience, won’t you? So you can have black toilet paper if you want it, or any color you fancy. You’ll just have to pay more for it.

How can premiumization help you and your small business? Well, the thing to remember is that you may already be producing a premium product, if you make it yourself in limited numbers. But like bottled water, you can premiumize the packaging – your jewelry in individual origami boxes made from handmade Japanese paper; or on the content – tracking down an exclusive source for one of your ingredients, like Tasmanian Rain.

The trick is to upscale your product in a way that makes it more desirable to those with the money to spend on such items. You want to catch the eyes, hearts and wallets of jaded consumers who have seen it all in one circuit of the local mall.

One new spin on premiumization that looks like it will take off like wildfire is the element of surprise, introduced by a Singapore soft drinks company with its products Anything and Whatever. This clever marketing ploy doesn’t introduce new flavors. It just makes buying a soft drink a bit of an adventure. Prompted by jaded young consumers who say "oh, anything," or "whatever" when asked what flavor they want, the company packaged a variety of soft drinks in cans labeled Anything and Whatever. Consumers don’t actually know what flavor they have until they open the can and take a sip.

It’s the old lucky dip ploy again, but reborn for a new generation that never plunged its collective hand into a bran barrel to pull out a surprise parcel. As this soft drink company proved, the element of surprise can still be a great marketing tool. Could this work with products such as hand made chocolates and other small business products? Why not try it and see.

Brainstorm this idea and see what you can come up with – perhaps a "lucky dip" jewelry buy? The consumer may well enjoy entering into this game with you, and it may be a way to attract the terminally bored and/or those who just can’t decide.