As fewer consumers decide to participate, so do their total expected spending. This year, 44.1 percent of U.S. consumers plan to spend $3.29 billion on St. Patrick’s Day. Both figures show a slight decline in both participation and spending from last year, when 46.0 percent of consumers said they planned to spend $3.64 billion to celebrate.

The notable decline in spending derives from everyone – even the biggest holiday spenders, young adults – choosing to spend cautiously this year.

“Increased concern about the economy among young adults has forced many of them to pull back on discretionary spending,” said Tracy Mullin, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation. While 71.8 percent of them celebrated last year, only 66.3 percent decided to participate this year.

The most profitable St. Patrick’s Day observed in past five years, back in 2007, fell on a Saturday. As a result, nearly one-third of participating consumers planned to celebrate at a restaurant or bar. Slightly less, about 29.6 percent, plan to do so this year.

Traditionally though, the ways U.S. consumers celebrate the holiday tend to remain the same, according to the National Retail Federation. As observed this year, the majority – almost 82 percent – plan to celebrate by wearing green, while about one-third of those surveyed said they plan to make a special dinner at home.

The trade group forecasts for 2009 an overall 0.5 percent decline in retail sales, according to a statement released last Tuesday.

“Most of the consumer behavior we saw in 2008 will continue well into this year,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist.

By that, the trade group means that retailers may see a 2.5 percent decline during the first half. They may then experience an overall 3.6 percent rise in the fourth quarter, arriving with the holiday season and “a strengthening economy,” according to the forecast.

On Monday, the National Retail Federation then released a survey conducted by BIGresearch, which found what consumers said they could not live without. Some of their indicated priorities and preferences could serve as valuable information for wholesalers and retailers this year:

• The top-ranked commodity of the survey: Internet surveys, with 80.9 percent of respondents guaranteed to spend money on it. Therefore, the upcoming year may not be so bad for online retailers. Internet sales could rise by up to 11 percent, according to Forrester Research.
  But a Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates study points to another reason: promised savings. More than two-thirds of respondents purchased something online they otherwise would not have, because of a coupon or discount. With that in mind, retailers may wonder – are the deals going to eventually lead to customer loyalty, or will they all amount to just a quick sales fix?
• As Wendy Liebmann, CEO of WSL Strategic Retail, said in the trade group’s full-length report, this year’s consumers may still be wary to use their credit cards. This fear stems from the debt they have built up over last year, which averaged out to $5,710 by December, TransUnion.com reported.
  Data collected over the past few months also show that credit card spending has been lowering. After total consumer credit remained flat in October, it declined in November by 3.7 percent, according to the Federal Reserve.
• But even while consumers face high amounts of credit card debt, they will still shop for clothes. In fact, 43 percent of respondents said that they will definitely purchase clothing over the next year. However, that clothing must be discounted, as consumers will continue to pass over luxury brands in favor of those with the best value.
  Considering such behavior, apparel buyers and retailers face a tough dilemma. On one hand, stores selling both apparel and accessories experienced a 9.4 percent seasonally adjusted year-over-year decline in December – also a 2.5 percent unadjusted decline from November. But consumers are still buying into lower clothing prices, leading to a 1.6 percent rise in chain store sales from one week ago, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

What are your predictions for the upcoming year, of the economy and of your business?

Total spending may also reach up to $14.7 billion this year, compared to $17.02 billion last year, according to the National Retail Federation. 

Last year, consumers spent slightly less money on traditional gifts than in years past, opting instead for a night out. But now, with the current economy in mind, these couples simply just want to save, as president and CEO Tracy Mullin realized. 

“A bad economy won’t stop Cupid this Valentine’s Day, but it might slow him down,” she said in a statement. “This year more than ever, consumers will look for creative and inexpensive ways to show those they love how much they mean to them.” 

But as they plan to spend less, the traditional Valentine’s Day gifts remain the most popular: candy, flowers and jewelry. More people also intend to buy the standard greeting card compared to last year – specifically 58.0 percent, up from 56.8 percent.

For such gifts, consumers plan to spend an average of $102.50, down from last year’s total of $122.98. Consumers ages 35-44 plan to spend the most, $119.19, followed by those ages 18-24, with $113.68.