For such products – including footwear, apparel and equipment – about 53 percent of parents with kids age 18 plan to spend the same amount, as 28 percent anticipate spending more.

The study, conducted by SportsOneSource, found that parents with a household income under $40,000 were most likely to spend “a lot less” this year. But it also found this group to be most likely to spend “a lot more” than any other household income group, with the exception of parents making over $125,000 a year.

As observed by the National Retail Federation, consumers traditionally begin back-to-school shopping three weeks to one month before school starts. In 2007, the retail holiday raked in $18.4 billion, thanks mainly to sales of electronics, footwear and apparel.

After spending $88.01 on recent graduates and $123.89 on mothers in May, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $90.89 on fathers, down from last year’s $94.54. The National Retail Federation also expects total spending to reach $9.4 billion, according to the D.C. trade association’s most recent survey.

Sporting goods, gardening tools and appliances are still mainstay Father’s Day gifts, as consumers anticipate spending more than $500 million in each product category.

But while ties and socks also remain popular gifts, consumers plan to spend the most on a special outing, such as dinner or a sporting event. In fact, more than a third of total holiday spending, or $3.2 billion, will go toward both outings and clothing.

And while consumers recognize the special interests of their fathers, they are celebrating Father’s Day not much differently than Mother’s Day. For both mothers and fathers, special outings, gift cards and clothing have become favorite purchases. And for both holidays, they will shop the most at discount stores, as their popularity continues to rise.

Side note: This Father’s Day survey also points out that since 2004, consumers have spent an average of $30.33 more on mothers than fathers for their respective holidays. Why do you think this happens? Let us know by commenting below.

Shop.org, the National Retail Federation’s digital division, is offering the best of the basic tactics, by addressing topics like social networking tools, online retail video and multi-channel success.

Speakers include Stephan Spencer, founder and president of natural search engine marketing firm Netconcepts. Bring laptops if possible to his hands-on workshop, “90 Minutes of Pure ROI,” to see firsthand which simple SEO tactics have the most impact.

Spencer’s clients include the Home Shopping Network, America Online and the Discovery Channel. Other featured experts represent BestBuy.com, Lane Bryant, and Drugstore.com.

For more information about the Online Marketing Workshop, May 4-6 in Scottsdale, Ariz., call 202-626-8192 or visit the event’s Web site. Registration by May 1 required.

“Discounted digital cameras, books and apparel still show mom how much she is appreciated,” said Tracy Mullin, president of the National Retail Federation.

For the first time since 2006, U.S. consumers are also choosing discount stores over department stores. However, the specialty store remains their top destination, according a survey conducted by the D.C.-based trade group and BIGresearch.

“No one will forgo celebrating Mother’s Day because of the bad economy, but they will put careful thought into what they buy and how much they spend,” said Phil Rist, BIGresearch’s executive vice-president of strategic research.

But for the most part, traditionally popular gifts remain mainstay options for this year’s consumers. More than 66 percent of consumers plan to buy flowers, if not a special meal (54.8 percent) or jewelry (27.8 percent).

Total Mother’s Day spending is expected to reach $14.1 billion, as individual spending averages to $123.89 – $14.72 less than what they spent last year. Mother’s Day spending had also fallen in 2008, mainly due to rising gas prices.

Readers, what Mother’s Day gifts are you promoting this year?

“With Easter falling so late this year, retailers will have plenty of time to entice shoppers with deals on spring apparel and other Easter merchandise,” said Tracy Mullin, president of the National Retail Federation.

The D.C. trade group expects total spending to reach $12.73 billion, based on a survey conducted with BIGresearch in early March. Nearly 80 percent of those surveyed said that they observe Easter.

While the holiday meal continues to be the biggest expense, most consumers – specifically, more than 87 percent – plan to purchase candy. More than half of them will also buy gifts and greeting cards, adding up to an estimated $7.88 billion.

These findings lead experts to believe that Easter is still both a good time and reason to launch spring promotions.

“Many Americans view Easter as the official kickoff to spring,” said Phil Rist, BIGresearch’s executive vice president of strategic initiatives. “A later holiday could mean people will take advantage of retailers’ promotions as a way to spruce up their spring wardrobe.”

The National Retail Federation reported Thursday a 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted increase overall, excluding that of automobiles, gas stations and restaurants. This observation follows a 1.4 percent increase in January, according to a revised report.

“This is quite startling… a big change,” said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics to the Wall Street Journal.

But while economists searched for a reason behind the behavior, they had a hard time finding one.

“Some of the increase could be due to clearance of unsold merchandise and the impact of a phasing out of discounts around Christmas … but that is unlikely to explain all of the strength,” according to a Goldman Sachs report.

Overall, economists still sense that such upward movement may only be temporary.

“While we are seeing growth in consumer spending, it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue,” said Rosalind Wells, chief economist, in a statement.

Sales levels are also still below that of 2008, which the National Retail Federation expects to see through the first half of 2009. But for now, the trade group sees for certain that the current month-to-month growth is driven by not one, but a few retail categories. The highest performers include clothing and clothing accessories, with a 2.8 percent increase, and electronics and appliances, with a 1.2 percent increase.

Steps taken by retailers to keep inventories lean are showing a bit of progress to accommodate to declining demand, as recent reports of early 2009 wholesale trade reveal.

As retail stores start sourcing their spring and summer merchandise, the National Retail Federation still expects a 5.3 percent rise in March retail container traffic from last month, a total of 1.07 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEU).

At the same time however, such levels still fall below that of March 2008 by 7.4 percent – a trend that the trade group predicts to observe throughout the first half of 2009.

“This year’s numbers are going to remain well below last year because sales are still slow and most economists aren’t seeing a recovery before the second half of the year at the earliest,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a statement released Friday. “Careful inventory management is a key to survival for retailers in the economic times we’re going through.”

And while retailers in some industries are still trying to shave off surplus inventory, rapidly declining sales have not made that task any easier to fulfill. A report released yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that in January, wholesale sales dropped more than four times faster than inventories.

Still, slightly declining wholesale inventory-to-sale ratios in a few categories – including apparel and miscellaneous non-durable goods – demonstrate that efforts made by retailers are still paying off, despite weak demand.

The 0.7 percent month-to-month decline in wholesale inventories also surprised economists. Seeking Alpha analysts had predicted a 1 percent decline in inventories, which now signals to them “either weaker consumption or stronger wholesale buying,” plus potentially good news later to be seen of retail sales.

As of Dec. 16, while the average consumer completed 47.1 percent of their shopping – down 52.6 percent from last year – over 41 million people had not even started, according to the National Retail Federation.

Most of these consumers will be looking for apparel, while 40.8 percent will shop for books, CDs, movies and video games. They ranked discounter, department and specialty stores as their three most popular shopping destinations for the rest of their holiday shopping.

Last-minute shoppers are also turning more to the Internet than they have in years past. Last week they brought the online retail market four of its biggest-selling days of the holiday season, according to comScore. Monday, Dec. 15 became the second heaviest spending day with $859 million, while Free Shipping Day on Thursday, Dec. 18 brought in $764 million.
Researchers have long figured that, with five days less than last year, a shorter shopping season could result in lower holiday sales.

“Procrastinators are in good company this year because a shorter window between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year means that the holidays have snuck up on many of us,” said Tracy Mullin, National Retail Federation president and CEO, in a statement.

But they also wonder, with this year’s recession, if consumers are simply shopping more consciously, perhaps waiting for last-minute blowout sales. As Dr. Timothy A. Pychyl wrote in Psychology Today, “Remember, all procrastination is delay, but not all delay is procrastination.”

On the Ground Below

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Retail Federation, and Census Bureau released reports indicating that wholesalers and retailers are still adjusting to the economic climate, as price indexes continued to fall:

• Retail container traffic fell in November for the 16th month in a row. With this finding in mind, the National Retail Federation maintains its hypothesis that 2008 will be the slowest year for traffic since 2004, with a year-to-year decline of 7.1 percent.

• U.S. wholesalers lowered their inventories by 1.1. percent in October, though sales also dropped by 4.1 percent from the previous month, according to a Census Bureau report released Wednesday.

• As reported today, wholesale prices of finished goods dropped by 2.2 percent in November, following monthly declines of 2.8 and 0.4 percents.

The Cloud of Consumer Pessimism

As these prices fell, a few research groups found record retail sale declines last month. The International Council of Shopping Centers even deemed Black Friday and the following weekend’s shopping days a “poor start to the holiday season sales,” as it observed a year-to-year decline of 2.7 percent.

The cause of these sales declines: a hibernating consumer, hiding from any temptations to spend money this holiday season:

• The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index measured record-low levels of confidence for the fifth week in a row, as reported on Tuesday. According to the poll, 92 percent of consumers surveyed said the nation’s economy is in bad shape, while 79 percent of them rated today’s buying climate negatively.

• Perhaps as a result, shopping ranked second only to dining out as one of the top activities consumers planned to decrease, according to a poll by the National Association of Television Program Executives and E-Poll Market Research. About 35 percent of consumers also said they planned to stay local more in their socializing, if not at home. They may also hesitate to buy any gifts full price this holiday season – though they were also willing to splurge on themselves, as Women’s Wear Daily reported.

Attempts to Find a Silver Lining

Meanwhile, researchers are taking such economic and behavioral conditions in mind, in trying to find positive news within it all.

• Some, like MasterCard’s SpendingPulse, traced the origins of rising consumer pessimism back to the ongoing depreciation of petroleum, as wholesale prices for it and petroleum products dropped by 11.2 percent last month.
  The research group reported yesterday a 3.8 percent decrease in total retail sales, excluding auto purchases – the biggest month-to-month decline it has ever measured. The caveat: without the rapid decline of gasoline purchases factored in, retail sales growth would have otherwise remained relatively flat.

• In its latest study, the Kauffman Foundation posed to question whether recessions were a good time to start a new business.
  The study, examining entrepreneurship up till 1975, did not reveal anything too conclusive, as the research group found a number of other factors that had to be considered. The research group also acknowledged that potential entrepreneurs would be unwilling to leave their jobs to found companies during recessionary periods.
  However, when the study excluded the Great Depression and World War II – the most unusual periods of time – the Kaufmann Foundation found that slightly more companies debuted during recession periods than expansion periods.

Overall, this week’s numbers showed that consumer pessimism remains persistent as retailers and wholesalers continued adjusting to the economic environment. Whether such feelings or downturn behavior will fade first, time has yet to tell. But either way, as the next few weeks pass by, and as the new year approaches, new perspectives could perhaps lead to new solutions – or, at the very least, a break in the cloud.

But so many options for consumers could bring too much competition for small business owners – that is, unless they properly prepare their Web site for the holiday season. Not only must they provide a reason to shop, but they must also promote that reason extensively.

Small business owners should first create a list a keywords that will lead customers toward their holiday specials, whether they are particular products or special sales. These can be placed anywhere on the Web site for optimization, and in a number of forms: with pictures as alt tags, embedded in the Web site coding under meta tags, or simply included in a written blurb.

Regardless of what they are, returning and even prospective customers will always be drawn to something new, said Maria Perilli, online marketing manager for Deep Blue Interactive , a web design and Internet marketing company. Furthermore, “the more content you have on your page, the more your Web site is promoted on the search engine,” she said.

For a richer shopping experience, online retailers now have improved site searches, customer review features, and product videos. JCPenney’s Web site has all of this, while also highlighting limited-time offers. Small business owners can do this, or even create a separate page for longer-term deals.

Such microsites, like Best Buy’s Project Holiday , can also demonstrate how company products can lend to unique gift-giving. If the holiday budget permits, small business owners can even take one step further and create a pay-per-click campaign for that page, Perilli said.

As for the main web site, what should also be prominently displayed is “a call to action” – a phone number, e-mail address, or even a link to a contact form, whatever prompts more than just browsing. As for the rest of the shopping process, small business owners should first obtain, then display an updated security certificate.

“Customers are not going to buy anything on a unsecured site that’s taking credit cards,” said Matt Warnock, creative director and producer at Daisy Interactive .

Small business owners should update shipping and handling information periodically – making fees and expected delivery times extremely clear. “They need to be concerned with orders getting out in a timely fashion, especially since customers can get so panicky about getting their Christmas gifts,” Warnock said.

Finally – no matter how they may choose to update their Web sites this season – small business owners must aim to provide a shopping experience as personalized as customers may find in brick-and-mortar storefronts.

“Make sure you put your message out as much as possible … making sure the customers feel happy and positive about shopping,” Warnock said.