After spending $88.01 on recent graduates and $123.89 on mothers in May, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $90.89 on fathers, down from last year’s $94.54. The National Retail Federation also expects total spending to reach $9.4 billion, according to the D.C. trade association’s most recent survey.

Sporting goods, gardening tools and appliances are still mainstay Father’s Day gifts, as consumers anticipate spending more than $500 million in each product category.

But while ties and socks also remain popular gifts, consumers plan to spend the most on a special outing, such as dinner or a sporting event. In fact, more than a third of total holiday spending, or $3.2 billion, will go toward both outings and clothing.

And while consumers recognize the special interests of their fathers, they are celebrating Father’s Day not much differently than Mother’s Day. For both mothers and fathers, special outings, gift cards and clothing have become favorite purchases. And for both holidays, they will shop the most at discount stores, as their popularity continues to rise.

Side note: This Father’s Day survey also points out that since 2004, consumers have spent an average of $30.33 more on mothers than fathers for their respective holidays. Why do you think this happens? Let us know by commenting below.

“With Easter falling so late this year, retailers will have plenty of time to entice shoppers with deals on spring apparel and other Easter merchandise,” said Tracy Mullin, president of the National Retail Federation.

The D.C. trade group expects total spending to reach $12.73 billion, based on a survey conducted with BIGresearch in early March. Nearly 80 percent of those surveyed said that they observe Easter.

While the holiday meal continues to be the biggest expense, most consumers – specifically, more than 87 percent – plan to purchase candy. More than half of them will also buy gifts and greeting cards, adding up to an estimated $7.88 billion.

These findings lead experts to believe that Easter is still both a good time and reason to launch spring promotions.

“Many Americans view Easter as the official kickoff to spring,” said Phil Rist, BIGresearch’s executive vice president of strategic initiatives. “A later holiday could mean people will take advantage of retailers’ promotions as a way to spruce up their spring wardrobe.”

According to Oneupweb, a search engine and marketing company, the week of Halloween, Oct. 27 to Nov. 2, became the biggest for sales and conversion rates of the holiday season – indicating that customers began shopping even earlier. Returns, gift cards and after-Christmas bargains then led to small rises, between Dec. 28 and Jan. 4.

The study also revealed that while year-to-year sales fell almost entirely throughout the season, traffic and conversions increased – indicating that consumers browsed the Internet more than ever for gifts.

“Think of it in terms of a brick-and-mortar store – consumers will go into a store to view the merchandise, perhaps several times before making a purchase,” the study said. “This means retailers need to have all merchandise ready and available for them to browse.”

With this, the company gave a few recommendations to keep in mind for 2009:

• Plan ahead and follow through. Though Oneupweb declared Halloween as the start to the holiday shopping season in 2007, it now recommends that retailers implement holiday campaigns and discounts on the first week of October, and plan for campaigns following Christmas as well.
• Compel shoppers to make immediate purchases. After all, imagine if that increased traffic had been converted to sales. Perhaps the best time to do this would be early in the season, as Oneupweb suggests. And to appeal to those last-minute shoppers, offer free shipping.

The company’s report, “The 2008 U.S. Online Shopping Report – What the 2008 Holiday Shopping Season Can Teach Us,” is available as a free download from their official Web site.

Retail sales are expected to fall by 8 percent in December through Christmas Eve, after falling 5.5 percent last month, according to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse report. Both declines, with the economy and weather in mind, added up to “one of the most challenging holiday shopping seasons in decades,” said Michael McNamara, vice-president of research and analysis.

With the average price per gallon down by almost 50 percent compared to last year, gasoline sales also dragged down total retail sales in December. Excluding gasoline, total sales had dropped by just 2 percent, according to the report.

And while lower gas prices usually lead to more shopping trips, very few storefronts survived this season’s battle in scrounging up sales without losing traffic. Retailers that saw increased traffic right before Christmas include Target, Best Buy, and Toys“R”Us – though their gains, even combined, could not compare to Wal-Mart’s 36 percent rise from last year, according to America’s Research Group.

While sales in specialty, men’s and women’s apparel all fell by at least 16 percent, MasterCard’s SpendingPulse noted that online retail sales “continues to be an area of relative strength” during the holiday season. However, other reports delivered mixed results.

According to comScore, last weekend’s online spending totaled $677 million – a figure that can be interpreted in two very different ways, with five less days in this holiday shopping season. As both the fourth weekend after Thanksgiving and the last weekend before Christmas, this year’s Dec. 20-21 sales can be interpreted as either a 17 percent year-to-year loss or almost a 100 percent gain, respectively.

“A positive late-season boost for online retail perhaps,” said Gian Fulgoni, comScore chairman, “but it’s ultimately not going to do much to make up for the significantly shorter shopping season this year.”

While wholesale energy prices fell 12.8 percent, wholesale gasoline prices dropped 24.9 percent after just a 0.5 percent decline last month.

So far in November, falling oil barrel prices and consumption have made current gasoline prices the lowest since summer 2005, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The average retail price also dropped yesterday to $2.132 a gallon – a 2008 all-time low after prices peaked to $4.165 in July.

Meanwhile, executives and economic experts are still wondering how current prices will affect holiday retail sales, if at all. Kathy Lien of Global Forex Trading called the decline a “silver lining” for this season.

“Although gas station receipts will take a hit, lower prices at the pump will free up money for Americans to spend on basic necessities and holiday purchases,” the director of currency research wrote yesterday.

Eduardo Castro-Wright, head of Wal-Mart’s U.S. operations, has already reported such behavior this month, as made evident by company sales. As gasoline prices fell last month, traffic at its rural and urban stores increased, he said at a Morgan Stanley conference. Wal-Mart’s company sales have also risen 7.4 percent to $94 billion over the last quarter.

The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that nearly one of every four shoppers feel encouraged by lower gasoline prices to spend more – “albeit by only modest amounts.” Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research, remains skeptical.

“Unfortunately, rising unemployment is holding back spending much more than the help that is coming from lower gasoline expenditures,” he said to the Wall Street Journal .

The U.S. Department of Energy’s information administration projected last week that regular gasoline prices will average at $2.37 a gallon. The average price of an oil barrel can also fall by more than half of its July 2008 price, to about $63.50.

The National Retail Federation now expects cargo volume to total 15.3 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units) for the year, a 7.1 percent decline from last year. A month ago, the trade group foresaw a 6.5 percent drop in yearly retail cargo traffic, with total cargo volume being the lowest since 2005.

With retailers attempting to avoid unplanned post-holiday markdowns, “the balance between supply and demand is tougher than ever,” said Jonathan Gold, vice-president for supply chain and customs policy, in a statement.

The trade group foresees a mere 2.2 percent growth in holiday season sales – the lowest predicted increase since 2002 – and “one of the slowest years in quite some time for retail stores,” said J. Craig Shearman, vice-president of government affairs.

According to the National Retail Federation, after major growth in 2005 and 2006 – by about 9.8 and 6.7 percent, respectively – retail cargo volume peaked over the past six years at 16.5 billion TEU in 2007.

Though such a decline in traffic is significant, the year’s total volume still amounts to growth in volume since 2004, said Andrei Roudoi, IHS Global Insight manager of international trade forecasting.

Both Roudoi and the National Retail Federation predict that, once the holiday season ends, a still-strengthening U.S. dollar could help amount to a 2.3 percent growth next March. But “it is really too soon to say whether March will be an indication of any sort of trend” for the year, Shearman said.

“Consumers – who have been anxious and uncertain for the past several months – may be looking at Halloween as an opportunity to forget the stresses of daily life,” said National Retail Federation President Tracy Mullin in a statement.

The trade group’s survey, conducted last month by BIGresearch, revealed consumer behavior similar to that of 2002, another recession year. Back then, the average person spent $44.20, only 30 cents less than the year before.

Of more than 8,000 respondents, 64.5 percent said they planned to celebrate Halloween this year. Of these consumers, more than 50 percent said they plan to decorate their homes. Steve Rose, marketing coordinator of balloon and holiday gift wholesaler Burton and Burton, said in an e-mail that the company feels optimistic about this season, despite the state of the nation’s economy. “Consumers may be putting off major purchases like homes, cars and electronics, but they will still spend money to celebrate holidays and annual events.”

According to the National Retail Federation, consumers ages 18 to 34 still plan to spend the most of any other age group this Halloween. In 2002, they spent an average of $67 on holiday-related goods, including costumes, candy and decorations. This year, they anticipate spending an average of $83.

Retailers have also been using Halloween products as a way to market an entire season, “opening the promotional window through much of September and October,” said Tom Holliday, president of the trade group division Retail Advertising and Marketing Association.

“Much of [Burton and Burton’s] product line is treated more like ‘fall décor’ than just Halloween,” Rose said. “Things like decorative pumpkins, scarecrows, and harvest-themed products can be used all the way up until Thanksgiving.”

The holiday also still inspires at least a third of this year’s consumers to either dress in costume, take children trick-or-treating, or both.

“Parents just can’t ignore their children’s wants when it comes to dressing up,” said Kathy Grannis, National Retail Federation spokesperson. “Halloween is one of their favorite times of the year.”

The trade group also examined data from six years ago for a 2008 winter holiday sales forecast – though the outlook is not as good. Two weeks ago it estimated that sales will only rise by 2.2 percent, the slowest growth since the 1.3 percent rise in 2002.

In addition, the trade group expects a 6 percent drop in yearly retail cargo traffic – 2 percent more than its prediction made less than two months ago.

For U.S. ports, October is traditionally the busiest time of the year, as store owners stock up for the holiday months. It is also when the National Retail Federation usually expects to see year-to-year growth. The D.C.-based trade group even predicted in August that October traffic levels would not fall below that of last year, despite month-to-month decreases reported since May.

The National Retail Federation has since released a report estimating that 1.4 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units) of cargo will flow through ten U.S. ports this month – a 2.9 percent decrease from October 2007.

“Retailers are tightening up their inventories to reflect what they expect to be able to sell during the holiday season,” Jonathan Gold, the group vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement.

In January, the National Retail Federation forecasted for the year a mere 3.5 percent growth in retail sales. In September, the group also predicted that holiday season sales will rise by just 2.2 percent from last year. Both estimates are the lowest increases predicted since 2002.

Article Source: http://www.nrf.com

Start Early
If you look at the most successful magazines, they always plan their big stories 8-12 weeks ahead of publication. That’s the same kind of approach you should take you’re your holiday sales on eBay. Start advertising in October for Christmas sales, January for Valentine’s Day, February for Easter, and so on. It can make all the difference.

Organize your Suppliers
If you have products that you get in bulk from suppliers, make sure they’re ready to provide you with everything you need. The last thing you want is for your popular Christmas gift to run out of stock because your supplier provided more to a competitor. Make sure you’re top of their list.

Promote Seasonal Products
This may seem obvious, but you’d be surprised how many sales eBay stores miss out on this simple equation. If you’re a jewelry store, and you have little elf earrings, promote them at Christmas. If you’re a chocolate fountain seller, promote them for Valentine’s Day and Easter. Taking time to promote the right products at the right time can mean the difference between good sales and sky-high sales.

Use the Buy It Now option
Although eBay is known for the great deals you get from bidding, the Buy It Now option is becoming just as popular. Allowing buyers to make an instant purchase, it’s a very useful tool for holiday sales. After all, it’s like the equivalent of an “impulse buy”, and on top of that, no one wants to wait for bidding to end on a holiday gift.

Free Shipping
Okay, so it might cost you a little but the benefits of free shipping are worth it. The extra buyers will boost your sales, and combined with the Buy It Now feature, you can pretty much guarantee your eBay holiday sales success.

Use PayPal
The preferred choice of payment for the majority of eBay buyers, PayPal is easy and convenient, yet there are still sellers who prefer credit cards. While this may be easier to manage in the long run, if you want to maximize your holiday sales then offering PayPal as an option is a must. Payment is immediate, and because of that, shipping the goods can start right away. Quicker shipping will lead to more sales, especially around Christmas.

Change your Theme
Although you might have a slick and professional storefront at the minute, why not make it even more inviting during the holidays? Have Santa Claus welcoming buyers at Christmas, or the Easter Bunny at Easter. Anything that can tie your store into the holidays will make it all the more attractive for buyers, and the sales should reflect that.