Emile

A: It couldn’t be much worse, could it? Like many others, I do indeed see things continuing to improve as this calendar year winds down, and getting better next year especially.

I think the real question is – what are you going to do to make it better?

By now, you know the drill.  I don’t need to tell you to work smarter, or market more, or increase your networking, etc.  If you are still in business right now, you have figured those things out for yourself, along with plenty more.

That said, you got me thinking.  The kids are indeed going back to school, and like us, they want this year to be a good one too.  My youngest daughter, Mara, is starting high school tomorrow (bittersweet for this old dad for sure!) and the more we talked, the more I thought what I am telling her about high school is pertinent to many of us too, me included.

Here is what I mean: One piece of advice I gave her was to ‘get involved.’  The more you put into school, high school especially I said, the more you will get out of it.  But it is a point equally as valid for any small business person – just ask my pal Bill.

Bill is a freelancer, and like many small business people, he found it frustrating and isolating to work alone most of the time.  So about a year ago, Bill made a conscious decision to get more involved in his community.  As a result, not only was he happier, but his business took off.  Between joining Le Tip, and his local chamber, and taking some development classes at the local community college, and sponsoring a local Little League team, Bill expanded his network greatly, met lots of new people, increased his happiness quotient, and yes, grew his business.

Of course this also fit in with other things that my daughter had been hearing from us, her big sister, and friends, namely, be open to meeting some new people and making some new friends.  It turns out that that is as important in business as it is in school.  I think the thing my pal Bill liked best about his year of living socially is that he got out of his self-imposed cocoon and made a couple of new friends.

I also liked the piece of advice one of my brothers gave my daughter – “make a mistake” he said.  It wasn’t “don’t be afraid to make a mistake” but to actually make a mistake.  His point was that in her willingness to try some new things, my daughter would have to be a bit fearless and not worry so much about how it might look.  That is especially valuable advice for a teenager.

It’s not bad for an entrepreneur either.

I was watching the new NBC show Shark Tank last night and was fairly disgusted by something I heard.  One of the sharks, Kevin the billionaire, hammered one of the would-be entrepreneurs because he had filed a personal bankruptcy at one point. “Don’t ever file bankruptcy!” Kevin bellowed.

Easy to say when you’re worth a couple of billion, eh Kevin?  But for most entrepreneurs, bankruptcy is the safety net that makes taking a big risk on a big idea more tolerable.  No, of course no one likes to file bankruptcy, but unless you are willing to swing for the fences, you will not hit the business homerun.  You may knock it out of the park, or you may strike out.  That’s the risk you take.  That’s the juice.

So yes, make a mistake my sweet Mara.  Try and hit one out of the park. You will, and you’ll whiff a few too.  That’s perfectly OK.

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For such products – including footwear, apparel and equipment – about 53 percent of parents with kids age 18 plan to spend the same amount, as 28 percent anticipate spending more.

The study, conducted by SportsOneSource, found that parents with a household income under $40,000 were most likely to spend “a lot less” this year. But it also found this group to be most likely to spend “a lot more” than any other household income group, with the exception of parents making over $125,000 a year.

As observed by the National Retail Federation, consumers traditionally begin back-to-school shopping three weeks to one month before school starts. In 2007, the retail holiday raked in $18.4 billion, thanks mainly to sales of electronics, footwear and apparel.

Including back-to-college sales, back-to-school spending makes up the second largest retail season of the year. Nielsen predicted, then confirmed through findings that this past season was “shorter but more intense.” Consumers had waited for more aggressive sales and promotions to appear as the first day of school drew near.

In anticipation of a slower season, retailers cut back-to-school inventories in anticipation of a slower season, according to The New York Times . But consumers also cut their spending, resulting in double-digit sales declines and more fall merchandise left on their shelves.

Sales of digital cameras, MP3 players, desktops and printers all went down during the back-to-school season, according to CNET News . But expected declines in notebook sales and the introduction of new product categories make the holiday season difficult to compare to the months before.

In efforts to cope, retailers have been offering more bargains to move inventory throughout the next two months – resulting in a more drawn-out holiday season than they usually have to bear.

“While low inventory levels may enable retailers to avoid ‘fire sales,’ consumers are looking for deals and value,” said Stacy Janiak, Deloitte ’s U.S. retail expert.

Considering such expectations, discounters fared well during the back-to-school season, and are predicted to be consumers’ primary destination for holiday shopping. After Deloitte found that more consumers will shop at dollar stores for their back-to-school needs, the National Retail Federation found that about 70 percent of consumers planned to shop at discount stores this holiday season.

After offering school supplies for as little as 5 cents each – then seeing growth in September and October – Wal-Mart will continue week-to week savings and Rollback sales throughout the holiday season. It hopes to save consumers an additional $200 million the holiday season, as it predicts low single-digit comparable sales growth going into 2009.

In the meantime, retailers are still advised to promote their deals and values.

“Retailers will likely not be penalized for their lean staffing levels since consumers are focused on value rather than on other factors,” Janiak said. “As we saw in the back-to-school season, price-oriented retailers have an edge in this environment.”

Predicting the Future
How can you know when the peak sales are going to drop off? You can’t predict the future can you? Of course we can’t predict the future, but we can learn from our past.

Retailers keep track of what happened previous years to know how to effectively sell this year. Managers order enough calculators not only to get them through the back-to-school sale, but also the first few weeks of school. They know how to plan for this because of what happened last year.

The same is true with eBay. If you could see what happened last year with calculator sales, you could know when sales are going to start to drop-off.

With a market research tool like HammerTap, you can know what happened last year. With information like that, you can in a sense predict the future.

I used HammerTap to research calculator sales last year. I researched calculator sales for four weeks starting on August 23, 2006.

Below are the results by-week. Pay attention to how the Listing Success Rate (LSR) and Average Sales Price (ASP) change during the four weeks of sales.

The Dropping-Off Point
So when do sales drop off? Sales during Week 2, August 31 thru September 6 were the highest in both LSR and ASP. During this week, you can sell the most calculators for the highest price possible.

After September 6, the Average Sales Price drops rapidly. In one week you go from $66.85 to $53.95, a difference of $12.90. This is a huge drop in profit. While sales are steady at 77%, you are not making nearly as much per calculator.

Depending on your cost of the product, September 6 is your drop-off point. Even though sales are still high (that’s your Listing Success Rate) you may not be making enough money on each sale to cover your costs.

What’s your strategy then? Try to sell all of your calculators during Week 2 above to increase both your success rate and selling price. Selling during this week is going to maximize your profits for this product during the back-to-school season.

However, each product is different, and this is just one example. In order to maximize the sales of your products during seasonal and holiday trends like this one, you really have two options: 1) Try and guess when the optimal time to sell is or 2) Use a research tool like HammerTap.